The growing stagflation risk

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has led us to make major downgrades to our growth forecasts, but also upgrades to our inflation forecasts. This is raising the stakes for central bank policymaking. Despite recent positive signs of a ceasefire, we continue to expect the conflict to trigger a lasting global trade re-alignment. We update our three scenarios outlining how we expect this to play out.

• Also this month, we look at the viability of the EU’s plan to reduce dependence on Russian energy
• Regional updates: We describe in more detail our forecast revisions for the eurozone, Netherlands, the UK andthe US resulting from the fallout of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
• We also preview the French presidential election, where polls are pointing to a Macron win
• In China, the pandemic is driving new widespread lockdowns, adding to bottlenecks risks

Lees verder >>